Sales management · Forecasting and budgeting
Give the bank and your team three numbers, and say what has to be true for each.
A best and worst case forecast puts an upper and a lower limit around your base sales number, each tied to written assumptions. It is built by listing what drives demand, putting a rupee effect on each driver and naming the signal that tells you which case is unfolding. It ends in a scenario table and a trigger list.
Scope, fee, reporting and term are agreed in writing after we have read your brief and spoken to you.
In one paragraph
A best and worst case forecast puts an upper and a lower limit around your base sales number, each tied to written assumptions. It is built by listing what drives demand, putting a rupee effect on each driver and naming the signal that tells you which case is unfolding. It ends in a scenario table and a trigger list.
A paint dealer in Mangaluru presents next year's number to the bank as a single figure. In September the rains run late, site work stalls, and sales come in well under. The bank asks what changed. The owner says the rains, which is true, but the plan never mentioned rain, so it looks like the plan was careless.
The fix is to write down the few assumptions that decide demand and to say how far sales move if each is wrong. Group them under your own marketing plan, your industry, your local market and the wider economy, and keep to a handful. Then add them up in both directions.
The owner and sales head do the work. It replaces the single-figure forecast and it sits on top of the base number from the forecast method selector. It leads into the budget, since the expense plan should survive the worst case.
Most of the value is in the last step. A scenario table nobody acts on is decoration. What you want is a trigger that says, in July, which case is unfolding and what you will do about it.
Where this sits
Topic 10 of 14 in sales management: forecasting and budgeting. Estimating sales and spend for the next period and checking against actuals.
- The topic before
- Quotas and targets
- The topic after
- Territory management
If you want this done for you
The forecast is a feeling, not a number anyone can defend to the owner.
The work
What this is actually like.
“List drivers you can check, not worries”
Late monsoon, a delayed festival date, a fixed-price rule on your product, a GST rate change: these can be observed. 'Economic slowdown' cannot. If an assumption has no signal you can watch, it will never trigger an action, so reword it until it does.
“Festival dates can shift a whole quarter”
When a festival moves from late October to early November, a quarter's sales fall into the next one. Check the calendar before you compare quarters, and treat a date shift as its own assumption with its own rupee effect.
“One driver carries the swing”
After you put numbers against each assumption, one will dwarf the rest. Name it. If it is the monsoon, there is nothing you can do about the rain, but you can decide in advance what you will do in July.
“A worst case needs a plan, not a feeling”
If the worst case would leave you unable to pay salaries, the number is not the problem. Decide what you would cut first, whether an event, a hire or a stock order, and write it next to the number.
What we do
What you end up with.
The documents this topic produces, what each one is for, and how you know it is finished.
The assumption register
A table with the factor (marketing plan, industry, market, economy), the assumption, the signal you will watch and the date you will check it. Keep it to about eight drivers. The owner and sales head fill it together.
Result: Finished when each assumption has a signal and no two assumptions are the same thing worded differently.
The impact estimates
For each assumption, the change in sales in rupees if it turns out better than expected and if it turns out worse. Use your own past years, a distributor's view or a customer call to set the size.
Result: Finished when every driver has two figures, and none is zero.
The scenario table
Best, base and worst case, with the sales figure for each and the list of assumptions that each case assumes. Beside it, the single biggest driver, named.
Result: Finished when the owner has signed all three rows.
The trigger and action list
For each case, the early signal and the step you will take: pause a hire, bring forward a stock order, add a campaign, move a rep. Include the date you will look.
Result: Finished when someone could run the action list without asking the owner.
The one-page summary for outsiders
The three numbers and the three or four lines of reasoning, ready to show to a bank, an investor or a partner. It is the page that makes the forecast credible.
Result: Finished when a lender could read it in a minute and ask a sensible question.
Why us
Why owners pick GullySales over an agency.
Marketing and sales, as one job
Most agencies stop at the enquiry. We also fix what happens after it: the reply, the follow-up, the quote and the CRM.
The person on the first call does the work
No account managers in between. You are never handed to someone you have not met.
A baseline before anything starts
Your numbers are written down on day one, so every later report compares against something honest.
The fee in writing, split three ways
Our time, your media spend and production on separate lines. You always see what goes to us.
No guarantees we cannot keep
The term is agreed in writing and never a default twelve months. We never promise a ranking or a lead count, because nobody controls those.
One office, and we say so
Nagarbhavi, Bengaluru. We work across India by call and WhatsApp and travel when a session needs to be in person.
#257, 3rd floor, Sri Nanjundeshwara Complex, Nagarbhavi 8th Block, Outer Ring Road. How we work.
Your brief
Tell us what you need, and we will read it before we call.
Eight short steps about your business, what you want and who decides. Most questions are a tap, and you can skip any you would rather answer on the call.
FAQ
Questions owners ask before they call.
Not here? More answers, or ask on WhatsApp.
How wide should the best and worst case be?
Should I show the worst case to the sales team?
How often should I revise the scenarios?
Can I build this without historical data?
How much does it cost?
How long is the contract?
How soon will we see results?
Who will actually do the work?
What do you need from us?
What if we are not happy with the work?
Where to go next
The work that carries this topic further.
The rest of forecasting and budgeting
Or read all of sales management.
Your next practical step
Tell us what you are trying to grow, and we will read it before we call.
Eight short steps, mostly taps. Skip anything you would rather answer on the call.