Sales management · Forecasting and budgeting
Size the market for each segment, then test your figure against a small pilot.
A market and sales potential estimate answers how much of your product your buyers could purchase in a year, and how much of that you can realistically sell. You choose a countable factor, price it, and check the figure with a short survey or pilot. This page ends with an estimate per segment.
Scope, fee, reporting and term are agreed in writing after we have read your brief and spoken to you.
In one paragraph
A market and sales potential estimate answers how much of your product your buyers could purchase in a year, and how much of that you can realistically sell. You choose a countable factor, price it, and check the figure with a short survey or pilot. This page ends with an estimate per segment.
The owner of a diagnostic lab in Mysuru wants to open a second centre in Hubballi. Asked how big the market is, the owner says very big. Asked to put it in lakh, there is silence. Without a figure, the rent, the staff and the equipment are all being committed on a feeling.
The estimate starts with something you can count. For a lab it is the doctors who refer tests, for a school supplier it is the schools, for a hardware wholesaler it is the shops. Multiply the count by what each buys in a year and by your price, and you have market potential. Your realistic share of it is sales potential.
The owner and the sales head do the work, with accounts or an outside adviser sourcing the counts. It replaces the gut number, and it precedes both the quota builder and the forecast. If your answer will decide a launch or a new city, add a survey or a pilot, because an estimate built from published counts has never been checked against a real buyer.
Distinct from the territory quota builder, this page sizes segments and regions of the whole market. The quota builder cuts a segment to the patch one rep covers.
Where this sits
Topic 10 of 14 in sales management: forecasting and budgeting. Estimating sales and spend for the next period and checking against actuals.
- The topic before
- Quotas and targets
- The topic after
- Territory management
If you want this done for you
Find out honestly how big an opportunity is before you commit a season's budget.
The work
What this is actually like.
“Pick the factor that triggers the purchase”
Choose something whose count rises and falls with your sales: clinics for a medical supplier, building permits for a paint dealer. If you cannot name the link, the factor is wrong. Test it by checking whether your regions with more of it sell more.
“Intent overstates what people buy”
Ask a hundred people if they would buy at a price, and more will say yes than will pay. Discount the answers by the gap you see when the pilot sells. Your own pilot teaches you the right discount; a number borrowed from elsewhere does not.
“One ward or one town is enough to learn”
A pilot does not need to cover the city. Choose one ward in Bengaluru or a tier-2 town like Hubballi whose buyers look like the wider market, run the full plan for a fixed period, and record who bought.
“The assumption log is the real asset”
The figure will be wrong. What matters is that you wrote down each assumption and its source, so that a year later you can see which one was off. Without the log you only know the answer missed.
What we do
What you end up with.
The documents this topic produces, what each one is for, and how you know it is finished.
The segment and factor list
Each target segment or region with the one factor you will count. For example: private schools in a district, kirana outlets on the distributor's beat, clinics in three PIN codes. The owner chooses.
Result: Finished when each segment has a factor that the sales head agrees buyers actually respond to.
The sourced counts
For every factor, the number, the source and the year. Sources include government registers, trade associations, GST and company lists, municipal records, distributor beat maps and your own field count.
Result: Finished when each number can be rechecked by someone who did not build the sheet.
The potential calculation
Per segment: factor count, share that buys in a year, units per buyer, price, and the resulting market potential in lakh or crore. Beneath it, your current and target share, and sales potential.
Result: Finished when each segment shows two ₹ figures, market potential and sales potential.
The intent survey and pilot record
A short questionnaire asking whether the person would definitely, probably or perhaps buy at a stated price, plus a fixed-period pilot count of actual buyers. Compare the two. Calls and messages for the survey need consent, and personal data needs care, so check the rules with your lawyer.
Result: Finished when you can state, from your own pilot, how far intent overstated purchase.
The assumption log
Every assumption with its source, your confidence in it and the date to review. Revisit it when you set next year's targets and note which assumptions held.
Result: Finished when next year's planning meeting opens this log before it opens the new targets.
Why us
Why owners pick GullySales over an agency.
Marketing and sales, as one job
Most agencies stop at the enquiry. We also fix what happens after it: the reply, the follow-up, the quote and the CRM.
The person on the first call does the work
No account managers in between. You are never handed to someone you have not met.
A baseline before anything starts
Your numbers are written down on day one, so every later report compares against something honest.
The fee in writing, split three ways
Our time, your media spend and production on separate lines. You always see what goes to us.
No guarantees we cannot keep
The term is agreed in writing and never a default twelve months. We never promise a ranking or a lead count, because nobody controls those.
One office, and we say so
Nagarbhavi, Bengaluru. We work across India by call and WhatsApp and travel when a session needs to be in person.
#257, 3rd floor, Sri Nanjundeshwara Complex, Nagarbhavi 8th Block, Outer Ring Road. How we work.
Your brief
Tell us what you need, and we will read it before we call.
Eight short steps about your business, what you want and who decides. Most questions are a tap, and you can skip any you would rather answer on the call.
FAQ
Questions owners ask before they call.
Not here? More answers, or ask on WhatsApp.
How do I size a market if my product is new?
Can I run the survey on WhatsApp?
Is a pilot always necessary?
How accurate will the estimate be?
How much does it cost?
How long is the contract?
How soon will we see results?
Who will actually do the work?
What do you need from us?
What if we are not happy with the work?
Where to go next
The work that carries this topic further.
The rest of forecasting and budgeting
Or read all of sales management.
Your next practical step
Tell us what you are trying to grow, and we will read it before we call.
Eight short steps, mostly taps. Skip anything you would rather answer on the call.