Sales management · Forecasting and budgeting
Forecast next quarter two different ways and look hard at the gap between them.
A forecast method is the way you turn past sales and present knowledge into a number for the next period. This page shows how to score the methods against the data you have, pick two from different families, and settle on one figure with a written reason. It ends with a side-by-side forecast sheet.
Scope, fee, reporting and term are agreed in writing after we have read your brief and spoken to you.
In one paragraph
A forecast method is the way you turn past sales and present knowledge into a number for the next period. This page shows how to score the methods against the data you have, pick two from different families, and settle on one figure with a written reason. It ends with a side-by-side forecast sheet.
A tyre distributor in Belagavi forecasts by copying last quarter and adding a hopeful bit. The spreadsheet has one column. When the monsoon cuts truck movement in July the forecast is out by a mile, the godown is full, and nobody can say whether the method or the world was at fault.
Choosing a method means asking what you actually have. Twenty-four months of clean sales history favours one family of method. A short history and a team that knows its accounts favours another. Pick two from different families, run both, and read the distance between them as a measure of how much you trust the number.
The owner, sales head and accounts person do this together, with a consultant if the numbers are large. It replaces the single gut figure, and it comes before the best and worst case forecast, which takes your base number and tests it against what could go wrong.
The forecast health check, a separate page, is for testing a method you already use. This page is for choosing one in the first place.
Where this sits
Topic 10 of 14 in sales management: forecasting and budgeting. Estimating sales and spend for the next period and checking against actuals.
- The topic before
- Quotas and targets
- The topic after
- Territory management
If you want this done for you
The forecast is a feeling, not a number anyone can defend to the owner.
The work
What this is actually like.
“Your GST returns are a free monthly history”
The monthly sales figure in your GST returns, or in your accounting software's register, is a clean series that nobody had to build. Two years of it is enough to try a moving average and a same-month-last-year comparison before you buy any forecasting tool.
“Festivals break a plain average”
A three-month average smooths away Diwali and the wedding season, which are the quarters that matter. For a seasonal trade, compare each quarter with the same quarter last year, and apply the growth you see, rather than averaging adjacent months.
“Rep estimates are a method, with a bias”
Asking each rep what each account will buy uses knowledge no spreadsheet has. It also carries each rep's optimism or caution. Compare the sum of their estimates with the number from the history, and keep a record of which rep errs in which direction.
“A large gap between methods is information”
If the history says 80 lakh and the reps say 120 lakh, do not average them. Find out why. A new dealer, a lost customer or a price change may explain it, and that explanation is worth more than either number.
What we do
What you end up with.
The documents this topic produces, what each one is for, and how you know it is finished.
The method-fit scorecard
A short table: each method you could use against the questions that decide fit. How many periods of history do you have, how stable is the market, how few customers make up the bulk of the sales, how much time can your team give. Score each yes or no.
Result: Finished when two methods from different families are circled and the reason is written beside them.
The input sheet
Past sales for twelve to twenty-four periods, each rep's estimate per account for the next period, plus any external series worth testing, for example rainfall or vehicle registrations. Accounts and the sales head fill it.
Result: Finished when every input has a source and a date.
The side-by-side forecast table
One row per method, one column per period, with the gap between the methods in the last column. Fill it after the inputs are frozen, not while you are still editing them.
Result: Finished when both methods have produced a figure for the same period.
The final forecast and rationale
The number the business will plan on, and three sentences saying why that number and not the others. The owner signs. The note is what accounts and the bank will read.
Result: Finished when someone reading only the note could explain the number to a lender.
The accuracy record
After the period closes, actual sales beside each method's forecast and the error of each. After a few periods you will see which method suits your business.
Result: Finished when the record has a row for every period since you started using the sheet.
Why us
Why owners pick GullySales over an agency.
Marketing and sales, as one job
Most agencies stop at the enquiry. We also fix what happens after it: the reply, the follow-up, the quote and the CRM.
The person on the first call does the work
No account managers in between. You are never handed to someone you have not met.
A baseline before anything starts
Your numbers are written down on day one, so every later report compares against something honest.
The fee in writing, split three ways
Our time, your media spend and production on separate lines. You always see what goes to us.
No guarantees we cannot keep
The term is agreed in writing and never a default twelve months. We never promise a ranking or a lead count, because nobody controls those.
One office, and we say so
Nagarbhavi, Bengaluru. We work across India by call and WhatsApp and travel when a session needs to be in person.
#257, 3rd floor, Sri Nanjundeshwara Complex, Nagarbhavi 8th Block, Outer Ring Road. How we work.
Your brief
Tell us what you need, and we will read it before we call.
Eight short steps about your business, what you want and who decides. Most questions are a tap, and you can skip any you would rather answer on the call.
FAQ
Questions owners ask before they call.
Not here? More answers, or ask on WhatsApp.
Which single method should a small business start with?
Do I need forecasting software?
How far ahead should I forecast?
What if the two methods disagree badly every time?
How much does it cost?
How long is the contract?
How soon will we see results?
Who will actually do the work?
What do you need from us?
What if we are not happy with the work?
Where to go next
The work that carries this topic further.
The rest of forecasting and budgeting
Or read all of sales management.
Your next practical step
Tell us what you are trying to grow, and we will read it before we call.
Eight short steps, mostly taps. Skip anything you would rather answer on the call.