Sales management · Forecasting and budgeting
Test your old forecast against what really sold before you plan the next one.
A forecast health check measures how far past forecasts missed actual sales, and in which direction, then asks whether the driver behind the model still moves with sales. It ends in a one-page recommendation to keep the method, refit it, change the driver or add a second method. This page shows the sheet and the calculations.
Scope, fee, reporting and term are agreed in writing after we have read your brief and spoken to you.
In one paragraph
A forecast health check measures how far past forecasts missed actual sales, and in which direction, then asks whether the driver behind the model still moves with sales. It ends in a one-page recommendation to keep the method, refit it, change the driver or add a second method. This page shows the sheet and the calculations.
A fan manufacturer in Coimbatore has forecast by a formula that an accountant built five years ago. The godown is full of stock every August and short of the best-selling model every March. Everyone has an opinion about why, and none of them has looked at the forecast against actuals.
A health check puts the last four to eight forecasts beside what sold. You work out the error in each period, the average error, and the bias, which is whether you miss high or low more often. If the model leans on a driver such as housing starts or rainfall, check whether the driver still tracks your sales. Then speak to the reps and a few customers about what is driving purchases now.
Accounts supply the numbers, the owner reads the result, and an outside person can run the numbers if no one inside wants to mark their own homework. It replaces the argument about whose fault the miss was.
It follows the forecast method selector, which picks a method, and it comes before a new quarter's plan. A forecast that keeps missing in the same direction is a faulty model, not bad luck.
Where this sits
Topic 10 of 14 in sales management: forecasting and budgeting. Estimating sales and spend for the next period and checking against actuals.
- The topic before
- Quotas and targets
- The topic after
- Territory management
If you want this done for you
The forecast is a feeling, not a number anyone can defend to the owner.
The work
What this is actually like.
“Bias matters more than size”
A forecast that misses by a little in both directions is healthy. One that misses high six quarters running is broken, even if each miss is small. Count the direction of the misses before you look at their size.
“Check primary against secondary sales first”
Before you blame the model, compare what you sold to distributors with what they sold to retailers. A distributor loading stock before a price rise or a festival makes your sales look strong and the next quarter look weak. The model may be fine and the channel may be the cause.
“A driver that stopped moving is the quiet failure”
A model built on construction permits may have worked while your customers were builders and fail once your business shifts to repair work. Plot the driver against your sales for the last eight periods. If the two no longer move together, the model is working from stale data.
“Put a rupee figure on the miss”
Put a rupee value on the sales missed when stock ran out and on the money tied up in unsold stock, and the forecast error stops being abstract. The cost of error is what persuades an owner to replace a method that is comfortable but wrong.
What we do
What you end up with.
The documents this topic produces, what each one is for, and how you know it is finished.
The forecast against actual table
Four to eight periods: forecast, actual, difference in units or rupees, and the same as a percentage of actual. Accounts fill it from the old plans and the sales register.
Result: Finished when every period has a forecast that was written down before the period began.
The accuracy and bias figures
Average of the absolute percentage errors, plus a count of how many periods missed high and how many low. Two numbers on one line that anyone can read.
Result: Finished when the owner can say, from the line, whether the forecast is too high, too low or simply noisy.
The driver check
For a model that leans on an outside factor, the driver's value for each period beside your sales, as a simple chart. Note whether the relationship has held in the recent periods.
Result: Finished when the chart shows the last eight periods and someone has written what it says.
The interview notes
What the reps and a few customers say actually drives buying now. Typed as spoken, not summarised. A new competitor, a changed payment term or a shifted product mix shows up here before it shows in the numbers.
Result: Finished when at least one driver appears in the notes that the model does not include.
The recommendation memo
One page. Keep the method, refit it to recent data, change the driver, or add a second method. State the cost of error and the date the next forecast will use the decision.
Result: Finished when the owner has signed one option and the next forecast follows it.
Why us
Why owners pick GullySales over an agency.
Marketing and sales, as one job
Most agencies stop at the enquiry. We also fix what happens after it: the reply, the follow-up, the quote and the CRM.
The person on the first call does the work
No account managers in between. You are never handed to someone you have not met.
A baseline before anything starts
Your numbers are written down on day one, so every later report compares against something honest.
The fee in writing, split three ways
Our time, your media spend and production on separate lines. You always see what goes to us.
No guarantees we cannot keep
The term is agreed in writing and never a default twelve months. We never promise a ranking or a lead count, because nobody controls those.
One office, and we say so
Nagarbhavi, Bengaluru. We work across India by call and WhatsApp and travel when a session needs to be in person.
#257, 3rd floor, Sri Nanjundeshwara Complex, Nagarbhavi 8th Block, Outer Ring Road. How we work.
Your brief
Tell us what you need, and we will read it before we call.
Eight short steps about your business, what you want and who decides. Most questions are a tap, and you can skip any you would rather answer on the call.
FAQ
Questions owners ask before they call.
Not here? More answers, or ask on WhatsApp.
How many past forecasts do I need?
What counts as a bad error?
Who should run the check?
Should I replace the model every time it misses?
How much does it cost?
How long is the contract?
How soon will we see results?
Who will actually do the work?
What do you need from us?
What if we are not happy with the work?
Where to go next
The work that carries this topic further.
Services
The rest of forecasting and budgeting
Or read all of sales management.
Your next practical step
Tell us what you are trying to grow, and we will read it before we call.
Eight short steps, mostly taps. Skip anything you would rather answer on the call.